Mercedes stock

Hey, i m kind of a new trader and not that good yet with analyzing stocks, but i randomly came across mercedes today and looked into it. Cross checked the current chart with spikes and lows of years before and drew some bounce back lines. Finally i came to the conclusion that its currently in a dowtrend and will go down to ~49€ in late feburary, but after that it should go up again till september/oktober (+/-70€). Can someone with a little more experience tell me if i came to a correct conclusion or if i am completely wrong. Thanks in advance!