Political Consultant here, electoral history of TN

1962 Elections Winning Party : INC+ Seats won:139 Vote %:46% Runner up: DMK+ Seats won:61 Vote %:44.8% 1967 DMK+ 179 52.6% INC+ 51 41.1% 1971 DMK+ 205 54.3% INC+ 21 38.2% 1977 ADMK+ 144 33.5% DMK+ 48 24.9% INC+ 32 20.4% JP+ 10 16.3% This was a great 4 way fight 1980 ADMK+ 162 48.9% DMK+ 69 44.4% 1984 ADMK+ 195 53.9% DMK+ 34 37% 1989 DMK+ 169 37.9% ADMK(J) 30 22.4% INC(I) 26 19.83% ADMK (Ja) 2 9.1% Notice how DMK alliance's vote share increased by only 0.9% but the seats won changed drastically. Also notice how INC still had a massive 20% vote share in 1989. 1991 ADMK+ 225 59.8% DMK+ 7 30% Rajiv Gandhi death 1996 DMK+ 221 53.8% ADMK+ 4 27.1% Jayalalitha corruption. See the massive swing from previous election 2001 ADMK+ 196 50.1% DMK+ 37 38.7% 2006 DMK+ 163 44.8% ADMK+ 69 39.9% DMDK Captain secured 8.4% and won a seat 2011 ADMK+ 203 51.9% DMK+ 31 39.5% DMK Corruption 2016 ADMK+ 40.9% DMK+ 39.9% This is very interesting. 2011 everyone knows how bad angi incumbency against DMK was, however in 2016 their vote share has increased only by 0.4%. Reason is Jayalalitha strategy of Fielding Makkal Nala kootani which secured 6.1% and PMK also secured 5.3% independently. That is why despite ADMK's vote share dipping by 11% they retained power. Both VCK and PMK were not aligned with either DMK or ADMK. 2021 DMK+ 159 45.4% ADMK+ 75 39.7% NTK got 6.58% AMMK got 2.5% and Makkal Needhi Mayyam got 2.6% If DMK can retain this alliance and unless there is a major anti incumbency their vote share will max dip to 40%. Can ADMK rally everyone together to win? That is the major question for this election