Market on Jan 14, 2025

Daily Journal: Some of you may be getting restless during this short term bear market. But this is quite common and a part of the game. There will be many such deeper and longer phases during your investing journey. You cannot avoid them as you are a part of a large ecosystem. You should learn to tackle it and get better at it. US markets showed some recovery yesterday. Dow closed nearly 1% in green. But Nasdaq closed in red. Futures are trading in green. 10Y Bond Yield is at 4.7%. Brent Oil remains at 80$. Dollar Index stays above 109. Asian Markets are showing some signs of green. Overall global cues are supportive for today. This positive start today in the Indian markets cannot be considered as an indication of bottom being made. But as we discussed earlier several times 23000-23250 zone will act as a support zone. It is bad that Nifty has broken the November low. But Sometimes market does play with the minds of people. I am hopeful that Nifty will take a pause in this 23000 zone. Whether this pause turns out to be a stop for the downside or not, we will have to observe and decide as we go further. What is the strategy I am applying? I am slowly accumulating the stocks in my portfolio and making my position sizes bigger. I am buying in small quantities so that I can use the cash that I have for a few more weeks if the market continues to fall. What am I buying? I am buying the stocks that are cheap in terms of valuations. Those that have delivered good H1 numbers and for which H2 is also expected to be good. Am I adding new stocks? Yes. But very few. As I need cash to add to my existing positions. I am getting them at cheaper and more attractive valuations. This increases the chances of getting higher returns when market recovers. Where will the market bottom out? It will be oversmartness to say that I can predict the bottom with 100% accuracy. But we should always have a view on the market and play accordingly. If the current fall is due to the reason of weaknes in the economy, we are near bottom. If something big is going to happen, then the fall will continue. The market knows it and we will know about it later. My sense is that we are nearing bottom. I do not see it getting too worse. But I am prepared for the worst too. I am keeping some cash aside for that too. December retail inflation moderated to 5.22% due to easing in prices of vegetables and other food items. The inflation was at 5.48% in November, government data showed. HCL posts decent numbers.