Daily Market Research Report: Crude Oil Contract CLJ2025

**Date:** February 26, 2025 **Time:** 7:00 AM CST (Chicago Time) / 9:00 PM MYT (Malaysia Time) / **Contract:** CLJ2025 (April 2025 WTI Crude Oil Futures) **Current Price:** \~68.75 \_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_ **Market Overview** As of 9:00 PM MYT (7:00 AM CST) on February 26, 2025, the Crude Oil CLJ2025 contract is trading around 68.75, reflecting a decline from recent levels and signaling bearish sentiment in the market. With the current date being February 26, 2025, this report captures the market state at the specified time, adjusted for the 15-hour time difference between Malaysia Time (UTC+8) and Central Standard Time (UTC-6). The analysis integrates the provided bias and expanded key levels to guide trading decisions for the session, amid a backdrop of weakening demand, rising supply concerns, and technical pressures. \_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_ **Current Price Context** At approximately 68.75, CLJ2025 is positioned between the immediate support at 68.87 and resistance at 69.74, indicating a market under pressure after a notable drop. Posts on X and recent market data suggest crude oil prices have been pushed lower by weak Chinese demand, U.S. economic uncertainty, rising OPEC+ output, and milder winter weather reducing heating oil needs, contributing to a bearish outlook. The current price aligns closely with recent trading levels noted on X, where CLJ2025 was reported dropping to around $68.92–$69.14 earlier in the day. **Technical Analysis & Key Levels** **Key Levels:** * **71.64** (Resistance) * **71.27** (Resistance) * **70.77** (Resistance) * **70.46** (Resistance) * **70.12** (Support) * **69.74** (Support/Pivot) * **69.30** (Support) * **68.87** (Support) * **68.25** (Support) * **67.75** (Support) * **67.10** (Support) * **66.71** (Support) **Bias Recap:** * Downward potential to 68.25 if bearish momentum continues. * Upward potential to 69.73 if bullish strength emerges. * Monitor price reactions at these levels for rejection (reversal trade) or breakout/breakdown (continuation trade). **Trading Strategy** 1. **Reversal Trade Setup** * **Long Opportunity:** If price falls to support (e.g., 68.87 or 68.25) and shows rejection (e.g., bullish hammer, strong buying volume), enter a long position. * **Take Profit:** Nearest resistance (e.g., 69.74 or 69.30). * **Stop Loss:** Below support (e.g., 10-15 cents below, such as 68.10 for 68.25). * **Short Opportunity:** If price rises to resistance (e.g., 69.74 or 70.12) and rejects (e.g., bearish engulfing, fading momentum), enter a short position. * **Take Profit:** Nearest support (e.g., 68.87 or 68.25). * **Stop Loss:** Above resistance (e.g., 10-15 cents above, such as 69.90 for 69.74). * **Key Signals:** Look for weakness (e.g., stalling price action, lower highs/lows) or rejection (e.g., long wicks, reversal patterns). 2. **Breakout Trade Setup** * **Long Opportunity:** If price breaks above 69.74 with strength (e.g., high volume, strong bullish close), enter a long position. * **Take Profit:** Next resistance (e.g., 70.12 or 70.46). * **Stop Loss:** Below breakout level (e.g., 69.60). * **Short Opportunity:** If price breaks below 68.25 with conviction (e.g., bearish momentum, volume spike), enter a short position. * **Take Profit:** Next support (e.g., 67.75 or 67.10). * **Stop Loss:** Above breakdown level (e.g., 68.40). * **Key Signals:** Watch for absorption (e.g., price holds above/below post-break) or strength (e.g., rapid follow-through). **Market Drivers (as of February 25, 2025)** * **Supply Outlook:** Rising OPEC+ output and non-OPEC+ supply growth (e.g., U.S., Brazil) are adding pressure on prices, contributing to oversupply concerns. Posts on X highlight fears of an oversupply, with prices plunging through key levels like 69. * **Demand Factors:** Weak Chinese demand, U.S. economic uncertainty, and milder winter weather reducing heating oil needs are weighing on the market, as noted in sentiment on X and broader energy reports. * **Geopolitical Risks:** U.S. sanctions on key producers (e.g., Russia, Iran) and Middle East tensions remain potential volatility triggers, but their impact appears muted currently. * **Inventory Levels:** Tight U.S. crude inventories provide some support, but global stock builds anticipated later in 2025 could exacerbate downward pressure. Recent data from Odessa American indicates WTI crude at 68.93, down 1.77, reinforcing bearish sentiment. **Price Action Scenarios** * **Bearish Case:** A drop below 68.87 could target 68.25 or lower (67.75, 67.10, 66.71), driven by oversupply fears, weak demand, or bearish macro data. Posts on X suggest potential targets around 68.37, 68, and 67.62 if prices break below 68.64. * **Bullish Case:** A break above 69.74 might aim for 70.12 or 70.46, with 70.77 as a stretch, supported by supply disruptions or bullish inventory surprises, though current sentiment leans bearish. * **Neutral Case:** Price may consolidate between 68.25 and 69.74 around 68.75, awaiting a decisive catalyst like inventory data or OPEC+ announcements. **Recommendations** * **Monitor Key Levels:** Use 15-minute or 1-hour charts to identify rejection or breakout signals at 68.25, 68.87, and 69.74. * **Risk Management:** Limit risk to 1-2% of capital per trade, with stop-losses set 10-20 cents beyond key levels. * **Stay Updated:** Watch for U.S. EIA inventory releases, OPEC+ updates, or geopolitical news, as these could shift price direction rapidly, especially given bearish sentiment on X and market reports. **Conclusion** At 68.75 as of 9:00 PM MYT (7:00 AM CST) on February 26, 2025, CLJ2025 is under bearish pressure, with a bias suggesting a move to 68.25 or 69.73. Traders can capitalize on rejection for reversal trades or strength for breakout trades, using the provided key levels as guideposts. With market fundamentals pointing to oversupply and weak demand, vigilance and disciplined execution will be critical to navigating this session. \_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_ *Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Verify real-time prices and conduct your own analysis before trading.*