help me calculate odds of winning a IPO

there r 3 category 1 - retail - 15K 2 - small hni - 2L 3 - big hni - 10L till now i thought odds of winning is based on oversubscription rate letz take example of ongoing ipo indo farm the retail is oversubscribed by 45X 35% shares is reserved for retailers so i thought odds of winning is 1 in 45 ? am i right or wrong ? but in small hni and big hni both oversubscribed by 130X approx so is odds of winnin 1 in 130 ? but for big hni 10% frm total shares is reserved but for small hni only 5% so will the odds change ? will big hni become odds 130/2 = 65X ? see attached pics of data assume the subscription rates will remain same for closing day tomorow and calculate odds of winning for each category plz bcz i see ipo as a lottery bcz im a poker player so i calculate odds for everything but im not maths student im confuse will i have more odds if i apply in big hni i applied as small hni 2024 full not win any shud i arrange funds take OD etc. and apply as big hni ?