Mutual Funds - The Detailed SmallCaps Analysis

https://preview.redd.it/az8fywy1x1je1.png?width=1102&format=png&auto=webp&s=a0039049afe432efb6b26a48573392c17b6f94ef The image is from Value Research. I then asked ChatGPT to analyse this with a filter of leap year relations since they affect business cycles and election cycles and below are the results. What do you think? If you like the analysis do join the r/superperformers community. Here's what the analysis shows: 1. **Non-Leap Years (Regular Years)**: * **Average Return**: 29.71% * **Maximum Return**: 99% * **Minimum Return**: -26% * **Count (Number of Non-Leap Years Analyzed)**: 14 2. **Leap Years (2008, 2012, 2016, 2020, 2024)**: * **Average Return**: 6.2% * **Maximum Return**: 40% * **Minimum Return**: -62% * **Count (Number of Leap Years Analyzed)**: 5 # Key Insights: * **Better Performance in Non-Leap Years**: The average return for non-leap years (29.71%) is significantly higher than leap years (6.2%). * **Higher Risk in Leap Years**: The worst-performing year (-62% in 2008) was a leap year. This suggests that leap years may carry higher volatility. * **Best Investment Years Tend to Be Non-Leap Years**: The highest returns (99%) occurred in non-leap years, indicating that historically, non-leap years have offered better investment opportunities. I then asked more questions to identify patterns around leap years. Here’s what the analysis reveals about the best time to invest in relation to leap years: 1. **After Leap Year (e.g., 2009, 2013, 2017, 2021)**: * **Average Return**: **53.25%** (Highest among all categories) * **Maximum Return**: 99% * **Minimum Return**: 5% * **Count (Number of Years Analyzed)**: 4 2. **Before Leap Year (e.g., 2007, 2011, 2015, 2019, 2023)**: * **Average Return**: **15.80%** * **Maximum Return**: 56% * **Minimum Return**: -26% * **Count**: 5 3. **Leap Year (e.g., 2008, 2012, 2016, 2020, 2024)**: * **Average Return**: **6.20%** (Lowest among all categories) * **Maximum Return**: 40% * **Minimum Return**: -62% (Worst-performing year) * **Count**: 5 4. **Mid Cycle (Two Years After a Leap Year, e.g., 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022)**: * **Average Return**: **24.80%** * **Maximum Return**: 89% * **Minimum Return**: -17% * **Count**: 5 # Conclusion – When is the Best Time to Invest? * **The best time to invest appears to be the year after a leap year**, with the highest average returns (53.25%) and a strong max return of 99%. * **Leap years are the worst for investing**, with the lowest average return (6.2%) and the highest negative risk (-62%). * **Before a leap year also sees lower returns**, meaning it’s not an ideal investment period. * **Mid-cycle years show decent returns**, but they aren’t as strong as the year right after a leap year. # Investment Strategy Recommendation: 🔹 **Optimal time to invest:** The year after a leap year (e.g., 2009, 2013, 2017, 2021, and next in 2025). 🔹 **Avoid investing heavily in leap years and the year before a leap year**, as they show weaker performance historically. What are your thoughts?