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Murugappa Group - Tube Investments & Carborundum Universal. Thoughts
The Murugappa group's two Engineering stocks had stellar returns since the Covid-19 sell-off of March 2020. Tube Investments rose from Rs. 250 levels to Rs. 4600. Carborundum Universal was up from 200 levels to almost Rs. 1800. Now both stocks are down by close to 50% in just a matter of 5 months or so. What's happening here? My thoughts: 1. Both stocks were considerably overvalued. 80x P/E on Tube, with low double digit revenue growth. 2. Promoters began to cut stake towards the end of 2024. Always unusual for Murugappa promoters to reduce stake in a performing business. A clear sign that prices were running ahead of reality. 3. Empire building/JVs. Tube made a fantastic bet with CG Power. At the peak, they had a close to 100x return, with the stock rising from less than Rs. 10 to Rs. 850. However, they have since tried to enter into too many divisions. Honestly, I don't have a high degree of confidence that this will work. For example, EVs (a tough market to crack). Semiconductors (lot of buzz and government support) Pharmaceutical APIs (what the hell!!) 4. FII/DII selling. Good promoters were the flavor of the season post Covid, but with valuations stretched beyond belief with what is certainly a cyclical sectors, it only made sense to move to lower risk assets. With T-bills yielding close to 5% and the dollar returning over 10% over the last 2 years, its was a no brainer to exit such stocks. Do chime in, if you've been tracking/invested in these scripts.2
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