Bears, get ready for April 1 - Short Selling

Hey guys, I've been posting quite a lot here lately, and I wanted to dive deeper into my current strategy. For those who don't know, I'm a short seller averaging over 1 lakh in profits per day with a 14-lakh futures investment—thanks largely to current market conditions. It really saddens me to see some traders missing the market sentiment and continuing to buy, dreaming of those sky-high returns. Let’s break it down: **Why Not Buy and Hold in a Bull Market?** If you’re aiming for long-term profits in a bull market, why miss out on the everyday gains? While some folks are waiting for that big rally, there are profits to be made on a daily basis by taking advantage of market swings. **Market Stats to Consider:** * **FIIs (Foreign Institutional Investors):** FIIs have been consistently selling every day. They’re some of the most informed players in the market, and their actions speak volumes about the underlying sentiment. * **DIIs (Domestic Institutional Investors):** DIIs, which include SIPers and mutual funds, are showing signs of weakness. December marked the largest cancellation month for SIPs. It appears that even traditional investment avenues are losing their luster when it comes to 'golden' opportunities. We might witness further SIP cancellations and an overall reduction in DII strength. * **Valuations Post-Bull Run:** We experienced an impressive bull run that led to sky-high valuations. The market has been managing these elevated levels, and it's worth questioning how sustainable they are over the long haul. * **Political Pressure:** A significant twist in the tale: Trump is expected to raise tariffs and make an announcement on April 1, 2025. Yes, it’s April Fool’s Day, but this isn’t a joke. The announcement will include a country-wise list for reciprocal tariffs, potentially leading to a 1:1 tariff imposition on India. This development is a golden shorting opportunity. **So, What’s the Bottom Line?** Even as non-professional factors are at play, the current market doesn’t look bullish. Some say these conditions come around every few years, implying that we can profit from a bear market—at least until the market finds a new equilibrium. Remember, investments made in 2024 may never return to their previous highs until companies rebuild and surpass pre-2024 levels. So why wait for a far-off recovery? Start shorting now; it’s like a daily money market for us short sellers. Personally, I stick with futures and have little interest in options. **Trading Strategy for April 1st:** Based on your risk appetite and budget, you have a couple of choices: * **Buy/Write Off Puts:** This can provide a cushion if the market moves against you. * **Short Futures:** Given the expected tariff announcement, this is an attractive route for daily gains. As traders, it’s crucial not to blame the market—embrace it, adapt, and play with it. *(This is my current position as of Friday; as I write this post, I’m up by Rs.36k.)* https://preview.redd.it/ivtr9ystknje1.jpg?width=936&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=948822b39df948b9182ed6a1f0894918d03c95da