A Monopoly business trying hard to get better margins

Monopolies businesses in growing sectors are considered to be one of the best compuders of money. Business like CAMs, MCX given immense returns to the investors. Dreamfolks one of the lounge aggregator operating in airport, railway and highway sector. Majority of India airport longues are already partner of dreamfolks. Internationally too they are expanding. As already expansion in airport had been done the growth is not going to come alone from new lounge addition. It actually going to come from increasing traffic with addition of newly added longue. Traffic is increasing by 7-9% year on year on airport that's going to bring revenue for them. Now from last 1 years they diversified into railway and highways. High traffic railway station are getting upgraded and longue are getting common on these station. Upper middle class not going in the waiting rooms. They are moving to longue for better experience. The new growth engine for them will be railway and highway sector. Everything is ok with this company. Clear service based model so no needs of capital to invest. Recently added spa centres, golf club for experience of high networth customers. These are high margins products. Revenue is increase by 20% no issue with this. Problem with them is margins We know most of the companies who brings IPOs try to do manipulation to say investors that they are very profitable. At the time of IPO dreamfolks too had ebita margins of 11-13%. Last year they had 8%. Now they are struggling with 8% of ebita margins. Company already knows that credit card companies going to shift on spend based model and that's going decrease their margins. Hence dreamfolks bought their IPO before this would happen. Now we should see 7% as stable margins for next few years. Needs to calculate what should be right valuation to the company. Revenue:- 2022- 282 cr- 8% margins 2023- 773 cr- 13% margins 2024- 1135- 8% H1 2024- 638 crore- 7% Clearly the growth in revenue is tremendous. Looking last 2 quarter we can Estimate growth could be around 20-23%. Market cap of the company is 2000 crores Last year profit is 69 crores. This is estimated to be 73-75 crores. Considering last year profit PE will be around 29. This stock is listed at price of 430 and raise to 780 in july 2023. From 780 it's started falling and till today it's going down and down. Current prices is 376 and Ipo price is 326. From ipo to today revenue became double but margins are lower by 40%. In view of profitability this company is still at its IPO level. Negative chart of dreamfolks shows their is still room for stock to go more down. If it's falls 20% more then valuation will be around 1600 crores. Profit this is 73-75 crores. Looking with this year profit PE will be around 22. That's the best PE multiple for stock whose revenue growth at 20%. Even if company maintain 7% of magins and grows revenue by 20 then profits easily can grow by 22-23% year on year basis. In this market there are very few companies which are growing with 20%revenue gowth and getting at valuation of 22-24 PE multiple. Just wait till 7 Feb 2025 and see how their ebita margins going to be in December quarter. Till that time I think may fall more 10-12%. DII holding in range of 6-9% in last one year. FII sold as they are doing in indian market. Motilal Oswald taken large stake in last 3 quarters. Promotors holding is stable. 0.06% decrease in last quarter due to ESOPs