OC -- Mid-Series Analysis and Discussion: BGT 2024-25 (Post Day 2 of Test 3, Brisbane)

https://preview.redd.it/il1dwu6d007e1.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3dcbfa4ce227f0b62e6a7c47ce5ea9cff56ef794 We’re bang in between the 5-match BG Trophy, and it’s time for discussing a few points on basis of what’s happened or should happen from now on: **1. Rohit Sharma’s Captaincy, Presence and Pressure:** Fresh from a rare achievement — the only Indian captain to be whitewashed in a 3-match series at home — that too by a rather beatable New Zealand team, Sharma’s meek presence on the field and slow decisions have hurt India’s bowling and overall energy. He came in with the baggage of a 0-3 drubbing at home, a team that suddenly didn’t know its individual roles and collective identity, and with a staggering Perth win under Bumrah, Sharma had to carry on the momentum.  If anything, he has handed it over to Australia, who were themselves facing fierce criticism from the media and fans. Steve Waugh once said that captains tend to ‘peak’ for a limited period much like batters. In this period, they’re at their best in terms of ideas, sharpness, wit and strategies. By the time Rohit became the red ball captain, he was already aging and past his strategic peak. The bowling changes are predictable, at times shocking when he changes a bowler who’s just picked a wicket. It is no secret that it’s easy to peg him back — any opposition batting team should attack for a few overs and the field will open out and bowlers will ‘wait’. This doesn’t work in longer formats. The irony is that in spite of the infamous ‘in-out’ fields, the scoring rate has gone up. Rohit’s test captaincy has actually faded since the England series earlier this year, and the immense shift he’s had to make in terms of batting stance/approach for T20 has made it tough to make the adjustment back to test cricket. At 38, you usually cannot find form in tests, certainly not abroad. The cluelessness was evident even at home, and for the first time I’ve seen an Indian captain so passive while bowling spin or seam, home or abroad. The longer this goes on, the worse it gets. There is little accountability in post-match conferences, and lazy statements like ‘once in twelve years is allowed’ should not be defended by anyone.  **2. Expectations:** Let’s be fair, playing the WTC Final was anyway a distant dream after losing to New Zealand. BUT, after winning in Perth, and exposing the frailties Australia have (whose batting is as fragile as ours), a better fight was expected. The Aussie media loves singling out opposition players and making it look worse than it is, and at least in words and hype, they’ve successfully separated Bumrah from Siraj and then the rest; ironically, their own bowling has consistently been unable to bowl threatening longer spells against India. Probably the only silver lining is that once this phase of captaincy is finally done, we can move on to a very talented and bright crop of youngsters who don’t seem to have stage fright. India’s transition will be less painful as opposed to previous times.  **3. The Illusions of Our Bowling:** Jasprit Bumrah is currently operating on a level that is very rarely seen in the history of cricket; coincidentally like Marshall, his only real cold performances have come against New Zealand. You put him in any bowling line-up and he’ll stand out. That being said, past captains and series have seen Indian bowlers staying united. This is actually a good bunch of bowlers who need a smarter captain that can devise and execute plans, make rapid changes and keep them fresh. It is not as basic as Bumrah + everyone else as advertised. Rohit’s problem is that you just know when the strike bowlers will bowl, what the spinners will do, where the mid-on will be, and so on. When he runs out of options, he gives the ball to Bumrah, instead of bringing him in unison with another rhythm bowler with a set plan. It’s as though a T20 templates has been stretched out over 90 overs. Test cricket though is about seizing moments before they grow bigger. Remember, Australia’s weakness is their batting, and by dismantling our cohesive bowling unit, it’s the only way they can somehow gain lost ground. Their media will find cracks or create those which aren’t there. Every time India’s bowlers have bowled as a unit, Australia have been suffocated, even if it’s our net bowlers in Gabba 2021, or WACA in 2008 or even inexperienced spinners back home. You have to keep attacking them with sharper bowling plans and keep them down. Bumrah + three focused pacers suddenly looks like a very good attack. Without the unity it looks like a one-trick pony. Paine made this error in 2021 with Cummins, England have sometimes erred with Anderson too in similar fashion. **4. Australia’s Batting:** Travis Head is quite honestly the only batter who’s riding high on confidence and a purple patch from the entire Australian line-up, and Rohit Sharma’s ineffectiveness in devising a plan to dry up his run-scoring chances is just absurd. Marsh is shaky, the openers are iffy, Marnus is finding his feet, Smith before this century was struggling too. Carey was good. No doubt that Head is a genuine match-winner, but it’s also apparent that he’s weaker against the full ball moving into his stumps, or the fuller out-swinger, a well directed short ball, back of length ball nipping away. Block his runs and make him ramp towards third man, make him take risks in stranger areas. Even today, Jadeja bowled two tight overs to Head, including a superb maiden where he was cramped and struggling to take a single. Next over, Rohit has a mid-off deep. He could’ve forced Head to play against the spin. I’ve really run out of energy to rant about how weak our plans against Head have been.  **5. Taking Wickets and Being Proactive:** Taking Head’s wicket early effectively reduces Australia to a 200 or max 250 par team. This directs back to my previous comment about how you cannot think of T20 style plans and ‘wait’ for Head to get out in tests. Australia have identified Bumrah as that person to negate, Indian need to attack Head and put pressure on Australia as they did in Perth. In return, they must build attacking bowling plans from the second and third seamer to make Bumrah seem tougher than he already is. That’s how we won the Perth game, where Siraj bowled six maidens on the trot. Our spinners had a say in 2020-21, but we haven’t trust them enough in Adelaide and Brisbane. Rahane was spectacular in reading conditions and knowing where to bring in spin to block run scoring.   **6. India’s Batting:** This is a major worry and unless the seniors don’t step up, it’ll probably be a 1-4 loss even with rain forecasted. Enough time has been given to Kohli, who has been given a longer rope than Dravid, Laxman, Sachin who in all fairness were greater if not as great test batters as Kohli. I remember Laxman getting one or two bad series, Dravid got two, Sachin probably got three or four in which they all still scored something at some stage. Kohli has gotten years at this point. Rohit’s form on the other hand has dipped suddenly which was always going to happen,  I don’t think he’s managed to switch back to tests from T20. His stance and trigger movements are expansive and opens up the LBW and bowled. In 2021, he moved very little and left outside off. Kohli though, has been suspect for far too long now, and like Smith I think we’re seeing the end — an occasional score will come, but on either side will be a string of lower scores. They need a cushion from the other end, or an older ball. Purely on batting and current form, one doubts if either make it to the squad. Which is my next point —  **7. An Ideal Playing XI for the Last Two Tests:**  Dhoni stepped away from captaincy after Brisbane in 2014, I wonder if Rohit will do the same in 2024 irrespective of result. In all fairness, it doesn’t seem like such a bad decision given how confident the youngsters are and the improbability of us reaching the WTC under this current style of leadership. Our issue is that we’re playing 4 bowlers (3 pacers + 1 spinner) and a batting allrounder. Between Reddy and the spinner, runs galore and there’s little control with the ball. Test series are won by bowlers.   ***Here’s my playing XI without Sharma:*** KL, Jaiswal, Gill, Kohli, Pant, Sundar, Reddy, Akashdeep, (Pacer), (Pacer), Bumrah Seven batters and four pacers, including one spinner who can bat. Under Kohli we always played full bowlers + one spinner abroad. In tests you need specialists. NKR is not a test bowler. After 36 all out, Rahane fielded five full bowlers in Melbourne by dropping a batter. We won the test and the series. In every match he had the five best available bowling options who could bowl properly. We are not picking our five best bowlers. The fear of our batting collapses means we need more cushion at no.8 and no.9 which is an extremely defensive move. You have to send a message out to the batting that they better get the job done. Quite honestly it’s embarrassing when you have to depend on the bowlers to bail you out with the bat. (NOTE: In case Sydney turns, drop one of the pacers for Jadeja/Ashwin)  Having four quicks will ensure better man management, shorter aggressive bursts and more pressure on Australia. NKR and Sundar can be used either to contain or change ends with the older ball. This is the way to win in Australia. I think Siraj should sit out in Melbourne and Sydney, and Bumrah should captain with this set of bowlers. Australia will find it extremely tough to score. Remember, if you limit Australia to 220-250, you will always be in the game. If you try chasing 350-400 the ‘extra batter’ isn’t going to score a double century and bail you out anyway.  **8. Here’s what India’s XI for the last two tests will be though**: KL, Jaiswal, Gill, Kohli, Pant, Rohit, Reddy, Sundar/Jadeja, Akashdeep, Rana/Siraj, Bumrah.   This puts a lot of pressure on the two frontline bowlers.  Unfortunately, this will happen and another BGT will be sacrificed under a score incompetent decisions and rude awakenings, the most hurtful being that Australia is probably the weakest it has been in a while.  **9. Initiative lost in Adelaide and Brisbane:** Cummins was under immense pressure after Perth for all the reasons similar to India’s issues, captaincy being at the focal point. Adelaide was always going to be tough for India because of the pink ball but the way India capitulated was abysmal, and Australia’s experience and excellence in those conditions triumphed us. India needs to practice with the pink ball, we can't keep coming unprepared; it's a very specific set of conditions which need exposure and experience. Come Brisbane, Rohit opted to bowl first on a historically good wicket to bat first and Australia weathered early wickets to come on top. The pitch will quicken up. If it doesn’t rain too much, it’ll be an Australian victory judging by how easily this Indian team surrenders under the current leadership. If it does rain, and the game is drawn, India will still go into Melbourne having lost all the energy and initiative they gathered so well in Perth.  In terms of captaincy, the stark difference has been Burmah, currently at the peak of his prowess, got to captain in a ***pace bowling friendly series***  as opposed to Rohit who is in the worst form slump of his career, trying to hold himself together. India’s batters forced the opposition to bowl longer spells in Perth and even the previous BGT here but in Adelaide this changed. An out-of-form and under pressure Australian team have now gathered momentum and unlike India they’ll put the foot on the pedal and be ruthless. Under Sharma, another win in Australia is highly unlikely. It is also improbable that he will find any batting form considering the pitches and quality of opposition and 2021 England now feels very far back in the past, which it actually is. Kohli might score a few but expecting a big hundred from him when the team has lost nearly wickets seems like a bridge too far at this point. Australia won’t score many either, there will be innings where Head is out cheap, but as long as India continue this defensive bowling routine, they’ll still breach 250-270 and fight. I'm not sure what role the coaches have here, and who has how much power, but it's not working. It’s time for India’s youngsters to now focus on these forthcoming innings to score well, use these chances to come back stronger in the future. However, miracles do happen, but you need immense belief for that. With confidence and a smart leader you can win as a team. With an under-confident and defensive leader, however, even a great team can look clueless.  **10. My Prediction:** 3-1 Australia in case one game gets washed out. Cummins will take more wickets as the series goes on. Would be GLAD if I’m proved wrong on both points! If India does want to win this, then ALL the focus should be only and only on winning this. Forgot the WTC. And take tough decisions.   Share your thoughts below! Wake up early and enjoy the cricket. Better still, use the excuse to exercise in the morning and get fitter (lol).