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How do you think India will be growing its economy in a world of fractured globalization, protectionism, and AI? What's your estimate for India's GDP/GDP per capita by 2050?
The East Asian growth model pioneered by Japan, and then followed by the Four Asian Tigers, and later China depends on a export-led model. This model may now be closing for industrializing countries since the Western world, both the Americans and the Europeans realized that they've hallowed out their industries to Asia (Mainly China, but also Japan and Korea). Some cheaper industries will still be outsourced, moving from China to Vietnam, Indonesia, Bangladesh, and India. But the truly profitable industries will be heavily guarded now, look at China's EVs, and how the EU and the US has shut them out of their markets. AI could also hurt India's IT services, which are currently important for its economic growth.5
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